Yesterday was a historic day. Two particular events marked it out.
- The 30 year yield on the US treasury dipped below 2% for first time ever. In all the glorious history, not even the panic of 1987 or the banking crisis of 2008 could push the yield below 2% but the trade war of 2019 has pushed it under.
- The 2y/10y spread rose above 0 first time since 2007. This is a sign of approacing downturn in economy. In theory all it means, money is going into the long end of the cruve instead of investment. Firms and individuals are incresingly pessimistic of return on their investment and hence parking into the safest asset right now. This was covered yesterday here. This comes after the chinese 30 year dipped below 3%.
We have many charts and setup to look at. You will need to login to view the full post. The first two are kept outside.
Yield curve 12 months later
The yield curve has inverted. Here above shows how it looked a year back. Things were rosy in 2018 but the inversion in 2019 is a defining moment.
30 year yield
The 30 year yield has dipped below 2% This happens exacty when dollar index is hitting against its most important resistace line in over 20 years.
We have a long term dollar chart inside which shows the importance of the levels we see today.
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